The world population has been growing for centuries.
It wasn’t a problem until it was – or is, as the case may be – and for some time, experts have been concerned about how our planet will manage to support all of these people.
It turns out they might not have to worry too much, because by 2080, it sounds like we might experience a significant decline.
According to a new report by the United Nations (UN), the number of humans will rise from 8.2 billion to 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s.
Then, it will fall to around 10.2 billion by the end of the 21st century.
To compile the report, researchers dove into population forecasts across 237 countries, and found that previous estimates for a peak population – and the ensuing decline – could have been too high.
A large driver for this is the fact that people in many parts of the developed world are having fewer children.
Declining birth rates in large population countries like China, Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal, South Korea, and more are proving to be a growing trend.
This is according to Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years. In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions. The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption. However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person.”
The report says the population has already peaked in 63 countries, like China Germany, Japan, and Russia. Out of these countries, the population is set to drop 14% over the next 30 years.
48 other countries should reach their peak between 2025 and 2054, then slowly start to decline.
In 126 additional countries (including the United States), the population is expected to continue growing until 2054, not peaking until the latter half of the century.
Even though earlier studies projected a larger population peak, all similar forecasts predict a global population decline – which will be the first time that’s happened since the 14th century.
At that time, it was caused by the Black Death.
This time, it will be the result of a choice people have made, but like before, it will undoubtedly change the way we live and think in the century to come.
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