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It is no secret that our planet is experiencing some wild and variable weather changes year on year, and it is well known that this is down to human-driven climate change.
In fact, the warmest year on record was 2024, when average temperatures were 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. This may not sound like much, but in terms of our biodiversity and the health of our planet, it was extreme.
The temperature rise was made even worse by a strong ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), meaning that the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean was warming.
This warming of sea surface temperatures has a dramatic effect on our weather, since it disrupts atmospheric circulation, which in turn makes places like Australia and Southeast Asia unusually rainy, while places like the north of the US become warmer.
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But a lot has happened since 2024, with the end of 2025 bringing an inversion, with a weak La Niña. This meant that the southern states were drier while the north became wetter – and though La Niña has a cooling effect, 2025 was still unusually warm.
And while El Niño and La Niña have always followed an irregular two to seven year cycle, the frequency with which they are currently oscillating is a cause for concern.
In fact, the rapid shifting and increased intensity of these cyclic events thought to be a result of climate change and the detrimental impacts of humans on the planet and its atmosphere.
So what of 2026? What does the weather have in store for us this year?
World Meteorological Organization
Well, according to an update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), we may be in for a brief reprieve – for a short time at least, with the weak La Niña currently fading and neutral conditions expected until at least July.
And after that? Well, as the update explains, there is currently a 40% chance that we’ll be moving back into El Niño, with the rapid flip-flopping something that we increasingly need to prepare for, as WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo explained:
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024. Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management. They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, and thus save lives.”
Sure it’s great to be prepared, but if we want to reduce the number of extreme weather events happening every year, it’s important that we do everything we can to stop wrecking our home planet and its precious environment.
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