We’ve seen dozens of disaster movies that hinge on the idea that some day, an asteroid like the one that took out the dinosaurs will again come crashing toward Earth.

Sometimes we win, sometimes we lose. Sometimes we send a bunch of oil drillers into space as a Hail Mary.

Ha!

In real life, though, is there any reason for immediate concern?

NASA says probably not, though there is one asteroid out there that they’re definitely keeping an eye on.

The space agency has an “Eyes on Asteroids” website that tracks objects discovered in the Solar System, putting a special emphasis on those considered “near Earth objects,” (NEOs) for obvious reasons.

These are objects that are 460 feet and larger in size that would cause significant devastation if they hit Earth.

NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object studies explains how they are given a score on the Palmero scale.

“The scale compares the likelihood of the detected potential impact with the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact. This average risk from random impacts is known as the background risk. For convenience the scale is logarithmic, so, for examples, a Palermo Scale value of -2 indicates that the detected potential impact event is only 1 percent as likely as a random background event occurring in the intervening years, a value of zero indicates that the single event is just as threatening as the background hazard, and a value of +2 indicates an event that is 100 times more likely than a background impact by an object at least as large before the date of the potential impact in question.”

The objects are also given a “Torino” score of 0-10. A 0 means the likelihood of impact is around 0, while a 10 means “a collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean.”

They are color-coded in green, yellow, and red to make sure the public can decipher the system.

While most discovered objects stay in the “green” zone, at least a couple have made it to the highest level of the yellow zone – a 4.

“A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1 percent or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.”

One of those is 99942 Apophis.

First discovered in 2004, it was originally a level 2 on the Torino scale. It was moved up to a level 4 in December of 2004 and given a 1.6% chance the asteroid would hit us in 2029.

Further research has shows that won’t happen, though collisions in 2036 and 2068 will likely be close calls.

There are no known objects right now with a Torino score about 0.

There are objects that require further observations, though, with possible collisions taking place 100+ years in the future.

(2907.5)1950 DA will make a “potentially very close” approach to Earth in 2880, and 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36) will make several close approaches to both the Moon and Earth in 2135.

Trajectories will be refined as observations are made, but astronomers are confident with their observations up to about 100 years in the future.

“No known asteroid larger than 140 meters in size has a significant chance to hit Earth for the next 100 years.”

A team out of the University of Colorado Boulder, led by Oscar Fuentes-Munoz, says they can predict the paths of larger asteroids 1,000 years into the future.

“Assessing the impact risk over longer time scales is a challenge since orbital uncertainties grow. To overcome this limitation we analyze the evolution of the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID), which bounds the closest possible encounters between the asteroid and  the earth. The evolution of the MOID highlights NEOs that are in the vicinity of the Earth for longer periods of time, and we propose a method to estimate the probability of a deep Earth encounter during these periods.”

This allows them to rule out almost all NEOs from hitting Earth within the next thousand years.

In fact, the probability of being hit before 3000 is pretty low, with only one – 7482 (1994 PC1) – having the smallest chance of a close encounter.

So, that should allow you to sleep a little better at night.

And be able to enjoy those Hollywood imaginings with a lighter heart.

If you thought that was interesting, you might like to read about the mysterious “pyramids” discovered in Antarctica. What are they?