June 21, 2025 at 12:55 pm

Why Do So Many People Understand What Randomness Is, But Live Life As If It Doesn’t Exist?

by Michael Levanduski

Man in suit tossing a coin

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It is a somewhat common thing for people to say, “Well, that was random.” when something weird happens to them. It is a funny turn of phrase that may not be accurate (something being weird or unexpected obviously doesn’t mean it was random), but that shouldn’t surprise us.

In fact, according to a study published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, while people may understand what random is, they live like they don’t.

The authors of the paper are Remy Furrer and Daniel Gilbert, psychologists at Harvard University, and Timothy Wilson, from the University of Virginia. They said about the paper:

“In 11 studies, participants competed against another participant for a positive or negative outcome, determined by a physical or virtual coin flip. The independent variable was who called heads or tails and flipped the coin: the participant or their opponent. When participants lost the flip, we found an illusion of unfairness: They reported that the process was less fair, were less pleased with their outcome, and found the other person less likable when their opponent flipped the coin. When participants won the flip, they thought it was less fair, and they felt guiltier when they had flipped the coin.”

Now, assuming the person doing the flip wasn’t cheating in anyway, it is clear that each coin flip was basically random. In fact, a coin toss is one of the most commonly cited examples of randomness and it is so good that it is used to decide things like who gets the ball at the start of a sports game and many other things.

Coin Toss At Soccer Match

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So, given that virtually everyone understands that a coin toss is random, why do so many people act like it isn’t? Likely the same reason that even though a spin on the roulette wheel is the same each time, people put their hard earned money on a specific number because they have a feeling about it. As can be proven by the billions of dollars casinos make each year, this is not actually a smart way to make decisions.

Woman tossing a coin

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This study isn’t just a fun little poke at the fact that people make decisions regarding things that are random as if they weren’t random. No, the authors explain that this same concept can actually have a much more serious impact. They said:

“Our results […] speak to the philosophical literature on ‘moral luck,’ which refers to the case in which people are held morally accountable for acts that are not entirely under their control. An example is the case of two drunk drivers, one of whom strikes a pedestrian (who ran into the middle of the road) while the other makes it home without incident. Most people would judge the first driver more harshly, even though the presence or absence of pedestrians was not controllable by either driver.”

They make a good point. Morally, the two people in this scenario made the exact same decisions. One will be looked at (and likely punished) much more severely.

Randomness effects all of our lives throughout every day, but we don’t act like it.

If you enjoyed that story, check out what happened when a guy gave ChatGPT $100 to make as money as possible, and it turned out exactly how you would expect.