There are a seemingly endless number of asteroids, meteors, and other threats from space that could cause devastation here on Earth. Fortunately, NASA, other space agencies, private companies, and even amateur astronomers are always looking to the sky to see if they can identify potential threats ahead of time so that they can be dealt with.

One such threat is known as near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4. It is going to travel through the Earth’s orbital path on December 22, 2032. This means it has the potential to collide with Earth, and given its size, speed, and what it is made of, that would result in an impact releasing over 500 times the energy that was experienced in Hiroshima, Japan in 1945.

To make matters even worse, NASA reports:

“In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on an impact trajectory, the impact would occur somewhere along a risk corridor which extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.”

This region of the planet is home to major cities including Bogota, Colombia and Mumbai, India. With the amount of energy that would be released, if it hits anywhere near these cities, the devastation could be massive.

As of now, the risk of this asteroid hitting Earth is about 3.1%. While still low, that is actually the highest risk that any asteroid has ever posed. In addition, that risk percentage has climbed from 1.3% to 2.1%, and now 3.1%.

The European Space Agency noted that the risk percentage changes based on additional observations and changes. They clarify:

“”As more observations of the asteroid are made, the uncertainty region will continue to shrink and the impact probability may continue to rise. If we reach a point at which Earth is no longer inside this region, the impact probability will quickly drop to zero.”

Currently, this asteroid is listed as a 3 out of 11 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is used to identify how much risk a given asteroid poses to the Earth. A three is within the range that ‘merits attention by astronomers.’ Specifically, the warning with level 3 threats says:

“A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.”

To learn more about this asteroid and the risk it has to Earth, watch this video from NASA:

Fortunately, if the asteroid is confirmed to be coming too close for our comfort, experts have ways of attempting to deflect it to a different path that will keep us safe. The DART spacecraft was tested in 2022 and successfully pushed an asteroid off of its trajectory.

Hopefully, that won’t be needed this time, as every asteroid is unique, so the same methods may not work as well.

For now, we will trust that astronomers are studying this highly dangerous asteroid closely.

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