It’s something that geologists, seismologists, and volcanologists alike have been seeking for decades: a way to forecast volcanic eruptions long-term.

Just as long-range weather forecasts give us a good idea of what the weather will be like in the coming weeks – or even months – the next challenge in understanding exactly what’s going on below the Earth’s crust is understanding exactly when what is inside the earth will suddenly come pouring out.

But luckily, due to meteorologists’ understanding of our planet and its atmosphere, they are able to forecast daily weather with impressive accuracy – vital for our own purposes, as well as shipping, defence, and public safety among many other things – as well as gaining decent overviews of particular weather fronts coming our way in the long term.

Currently, accurate predictions of volcanic activity are only really possible in the hours before an eruption – anything beyond that is extremely difficult to hypothesise.

That’s like only being able to check the weather for the next hour or two – you’d have to have an umbrella and sunscreen on you at all times.

Except that instead of mild sunburn or a slight soaking, we’re talking lava, and potentially lots of it.

But hope is on the horizon, in the form of research recently presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysics Union.

In their paper, the researchers – led by William W. Chadwick from Oregon State University – presented long-term evidence that a submarine volcano in the Pacific Ocean is set to erupt very soon.

Though this seems inconsequential for those of us on dry land, underwater volcanoes are important in the ecosystems that they create and support. Not only do they shape the sea floor, sometimes even creating islands over time, they also support underwater biodiversity thanks to the gases that they release, which help some deep-sea organisms to survive.

However, they are also problematic at times, so it’s key that we’re clued up about them. Not only can these volcanoes release incredible amounts of gases, when released into the ocean, the carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide may contribute to ocean acidification. While the volcanoes’ gases support some aquatic life, they could contribute to the demise of others.

More rarely, underwater volcanoes can also impact our life on land, with tsunamis resulting from severe and sudden water displacement, and the eruptions having a big impact on our climate too, as gases, ash and dust are released into the atmosphere.

Thus, researchers have been monitoring this particular submarine volcano – named Axial Seamount – for almost thirty years, with sensors and recording devices installed in 1997.

Using the data gathered over these years, the researchers explained, they can see that when the volcano inflated to a certain level, it always erupted. When coupled with seismic activity data, they hypothesise that this could help them to accurately forecast volcanic eruptions.

The last time that Axial Seamount erupted was in 2015; however, their data suggests that a new eruption could be imminent, ten years later.

That’s because it is now at almost 95% of the inflated size that it tends to hit before bursting.

Though the researchers noted that the inflation has been gradually slowing, with lower rates of seismic activity in the area too, over the last year there has been an uplift in activity.

This, the researchers noted, could be a sign of big things to come:

“Since January 2024, the rates of inflation and seismicity have been gradually increasing, apparently signalling a fundamental change in the magma supply to the volcano. As of late July 2024, the rate of inflation has increased to 25 cm/yr (averaged over the previous 3 months) and is steadily increasing.

Likewise, the rate of seismicity has increased to 100’s of earthquakes per day (with swarms of >500/day). The seismicity and deformation continue to follow an exponential relationship between the cumulative number of earthquakes and the cumulative uplift, consistent with the predictive model of Kilburn.”

This evidence points to one thing, and one thing only: Axial Seamount is going to erupt, and soon.

While this is unlikely to have any noticeable effects on land – even if you’re living close to the Pacific Ocean – this eruption could be important in more ways than one.

If the team are correct, and the volcano does erupt by the end of the year, then their methods will have been proven reliable.

And that means that it could be rolled out across more volcanoes, helping volcanologists to predict when volcanoes may erupt closer to home. This will give communities time to prepare, to evacuate with sufficient time to plan their route.

In one word, their hypothesis could be a lifesaver: literally.

If you thought that was interesting, you might like to read a story that reveals Earth’s priciest precious metal isn’t gold or platinum and costs over $10,000 an ounce!