Predicting the weather is a hard job. So hard that it is a common joke to make about meteorologists being wrong more than half the time. It, however, very excusable given that there are many different known factors that affect the weather, and many unknown ones on top of that.

One well-known event that can have a dramatic impact on the weather is the La Nina and El Nino phases, often called the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern, which looks at the changing temperatures of the sea surface as well as atmospheric changes throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Nino is a warm phase, and La Nina is a cool phase. They alternate back and forth in an irregular pattern. The cycles last anywhere from two to seven years in most cases, and will have a neutral stage between them. In December of 2024, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed we were in a La Nina phase, but predicted that it would be a short one. A recent NOAA ENSO blog post confirms that was the case, saying:

“We can say with confidence that La Niña conditions have ended. After just a few months of La Niña conditions, the tropical Pacific is now ENSO-neutral, and forecasters expect neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Neutral is also the most likely state through the fall (greater than 50 percent chance).”

While to the average person, the neutral time would seem like it would be the calmest and easiest to predict, that is not the case. Meteorologists have a good understanding of how the La Nina and El Nino patterns change the weather around the globe, allowing them to make predictions for weather months in advance. When in a neutral phase, however, that is not the case.

The NOAA ENSO blog explained this back in 2017, saying:

“Climate forecasters like having an El Niño and La Niña around because it can provide some useful information many months in advance. In the absence of an El Niño and La Niña, the predictable signals are weaker. This doesn’t mean that there aren’t any other patterns out there that are influencing our weather and climate (there are tons), but it is harder to predict them months in advance.”

This is primarily concerning the longer term predictions that look out weeks and months in advance. The day-to-day forecasts shouldn’t be impacted nearly as much by this time of uncertainty.

Predicting the weather is an impossible (and thankless) job.

If you thought that was interesting, you might like to read about why we should be worried about the leak in the bottom of the ocean.