A lot of time, money, and effort is put into finding and tracking asteroids, and with good reason.

While studying them to learn more about our universe is important, the biggest reason why they get so much attention is if they crash into the Earth, it could be devastating.

Just ask the dinosaurs…

So, when asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered, it got a lot of attention. When it was announced that there was a small chance that its path would have it collide with the Earth, the eyes of many astronomers were directed toward it.

Fortunately, scientists were able to refine its orbit and announce that the Earth was safe, but at the time, the paper making that announcement also said that it had a 4.3% chance of hitting the moon.

The asteroid is big, but it wouldn’t be big enough to destroy the moon. In fact, many astronomers were hoping that it would indeed hit the moon since that would give them the opportunity to study the impact in great detail.

If it was going to hit the moon, scientists wanted to know as soon as possible so that they could set up experiments and observations.

NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies used the James Webb Space Telescope to catch a couple of glimpses of the asteroid on February 18 and 26th, 2026.

Those new observations allowed astronomers to further fine-tune their calculations. So, two separate groups have now confirmed that on December 22, 2034, this space rock will pass by the moon at a distance of about 21,200 kilometers (13,200 miles), give or take 700 kilometers (435 miles).

That may seem like a big distance, but when measuring objects that are traveling through space at great speeds, this is about as close a pass as you can get.

The same numbers were reached by astronomers Sam Deen and Derek Lam independently, which gives experts great confidence that it is accurate. A paper was written with both sets of calculations, and it is available (though not yet peer reviewed) on arXiv.

For the many people who were hoping to see a lunar impact, it is disappointing news. It would have resulted in a new crater, possibly one visible from Earth. It could have even made new lunar meteorites that would have entered our atmosphere and burned up, giving quite a show.

At least for now, space enthusiasts will have to keep waiting for anything so exciting to occur.

If you thought that was interesting, you might like to read about a second giant hole has opened up on the sun’s surface. Here’s what it means.