The economy is an extraordinarily complex thing that impacts every aspect of our lives.

Many people think they have effective indicators to show when a recession is coming, including this bartender on TikTok.

She recently made a video that asked the question, “Are we in a recession?” in the caption, and she got right into it by saying, “Bartenders can absolutely predict a recession, and I’m here to tell you, we are in one.”

Wow, that’s a bold statement.

She goes on to say, “March and April are usually our highest months here in Scottsdale. Our peak and when I tell you that yesterday we made it through an entire shift cutting one of our bartenders.”

It sounds like they were pretty slow, and it wasn’t just a one night thing.

She goes on to say, “It’s not even just the volume of people that are not out about the same way. It’s also the tips overall in general. I average over 20% in tips regularly. Probably closer to like 25%, but when I tell you I’m struggling to get even 20%. Holy Crap!”

That must be hard to rely so heavily on tips for a living.

She wraps up the video talking about another thing, the opening of new restaurants.

She says, “The amount of new restaurants opening up. I don’t know if it is just the market that I’m in, because I know Phoenix is a hustling and bustling city, everyone’s coming to Phoenix. 45 over the last couple of weeks have opened up in the valley.”

Honestly, I would think new restaurants opening is the opposite of a sign of a recession, but apparently not according to this bartender.

Recessions are hard to predict, but does she have a point?

Check out the full video below to see what you think.

The people in the comments have a lot to add, check them out.

This person says the drinks are just too expensive so they stopped drinking at restaurants.

This is a good point; lots of people are quitting drinking.

These drinks cost too much.

Who knows what is causing people to tip her less, and whether it is an indicator of a recession?

Bartenders do see trends very early, so she might be right.

If you enjoyed this story, check out this guy’s helpful tip to get free tools at Home Depot without buying anything.