It can sometimes seem as if this whole world and everything in it is subject to one large game of chance – and often, that is actually the case.

When it comes to evolution and survival of the fittest, though, there is usually a rhyme and reason to who survives to see another epoch and who doesn’t.

So why did something small and vulnerable like a frog survive into the modern world while big, bad predators were relegated to dusty old bones?

It turns out scientists aren’t in total agreement, but they do have some pretty good ideas.

Amphibians have been around for about 370 million years, and most frogs and toads – the most prevalent order today – evolved in the Early Triassic, which is about the same time as the dinosaurs.

They have therefore survived all five major mass extinctions, as well as the Capitanian event  and many other smaller crises over the eons.

That said, they are struggling to survive things like the chytrid fungus and changing water pH as temperatures rise across the globe. So what’s different, and how did they manage to survive so much to even be here to struggle now?

One expert, Melanie During, told IFLScience that frogs were likely first to return because they don’t like competition.

“They like a catastrophe. They pick a damaged area on purpose because they can’t compete, so as soon as competition arrives they disappear. It wouldn’t surprise me if frogs were the first to rebound after the asteroid.”

Some researchers believe animals like frogs could have sheltered in caves that allowed them to survive the initial infrared blast, and their food source of insects would have been easier to find than a lot of prey.

That said, the resulting radiation would have been tough for them to survive, but many species live underground where they would have been at least a little protected from the depleted ozone.

The lack of fossils is an issue when it comes to confirming or dismissing any one theory.

“The main problem is fossilization at the time. North America is severely overstudied and yet I have tripped over T-rex, hadrosaur bones, etc. Finding delicate frog bones in that context may be too much to hope for.”

We know a little more about how amphibians survived the Permian-Triassic mass extinction, which is also know as the Great Dying. A study published in 2024 stated amphibians of the time were generalist feeders and highly adaptable to changes in prey, which made them much more likely to survive than their immediate competitors.

The survivors also favored freshwater habitats, says lead author Aamir Mehmood, which were more stable than those required by land animals.

“One of the great mysteries has been the survival and flourishing of a major group of amphibians called the temnospondyls. These were predator animals that fed on fishes and other prey, but were primarily linked to the water, just like modern amphibians such as frogs and salamanders. We know that climates then were hot, and especially so after the extinction event. How could these water-loving animals have been so successful?”

Their adaptability as far as habitat and prey, as well as their ability to survive hotter temperatures than many other animals, probably contributed to their survival.

But I’m pretty sure there was at least a little luck involved, too.

If you think that’s impressive, check out this story about a “goldmine” of lithium that was found in the U.S. that could completely change the EV battery game.